Foreclosure activity slows in May for greater Phoenix resale market

There were 9,980 resale homes recorded sold in May 2009, up slightly from the 9,100 recorded sales in April and 7,210 sales for a year ago. Foreclosure activity in May 2009 represented 30 percent (3,035 transactions), while there were 6,950 traditional market transactions.

Foreclosure activity, as a share of total activity, is down significantly from the 51 percent (4,295 recordings) of February 2009. Since recorded sales represent decisions made in prior months, this slowdown can primarily be attributed to the various hiatus programs that lenders instituted, while awaiting the new loan modification and re-financing programs from the federal government, according to Jay Q. Butler, director of Realty Studies in the Morrison School of Management and Agribusiness at Arizona State University’s Polytechnic campus.

For May 2008, there were 2,895 sales in foreclosure or 40 percent on the month’s recordings. For May 2009, foreclosure activity differed throughout the Valley such as 33 percent in El Mirage, 34 percent in Mesa and 33 percent in Glendale.

“Historically, May is one of the strongest months in the resale home season that usually lasts until August,” said Butler. “During the resale season, sales and median prices tend to increase, so some improvement in the local housing market would not be unexpected.”

Although mortgage interest rates and prices are attractively low, tighter underwriting standards, a weak economy and poor job market, including job losses and lost income through reduced pay and furlough programs, could place sever obstacles on the potential of the market.

“There is increasing hope that the housing troubles are beginning to ebb, and the bottom, along with a potential recovery, are  in sight,” said Butler. “However, many problems continue to exist that could hinder the timing of any recovery. The impact of foreclosures on the market has been the primary concern of the last year and will continue to be in the coming months, especially with the end of many hiatus programs and the weak job market.  The fundamental mitigating factor could be the various existing and potential loan modification programs that will allow households to save their homes.”

For the traditional market, the median price in May was $130,000 or down 42 percent from the $224,000 of a year ago. Foreclosed properties had a median price of $150,090 ($174,930 for May 2008).

The declining prices have piqued interest for potential investors and owner-occupants, especially in the lower income ranges. Investment interest is being driven by the anticipation that home prices will rise again in the next few years.

While lower prices can greatly improve affordability, they can adversely impact many owners and potential sellers who are watching their limited equity erode, as prices decline to and even below existing debt level. Rapidly declining value can be another issue in some of the mortgage modification programs, which require a limited decline in value from the purchase and financing of the home.

The two fundamental reasons why the median price for foreclosed homes is higher than traditional transactions is that more expensive homes continued to be foreclosed, with 20 being over $1 million in May, including seven over $2 million, and 5 percent of the foreclosures were in the $400,000 to $1 million range. Since most loan modification programs are designed for homes under $400,000, the increase in foreclosure activity for the upper-end market was expected.

The other reason is that, for the last year, approximately 50 percent of the traditional sales were foreclosed homes that were sold again with a median price markdown of 24 percent. The markdown varied throughout the Valley, ranging from 52 percent in Maryvale to 32 percent in Avondale to 17 percent in Tempe.

Since the greater Phoenix area is so large, the median price can range significantly. For May 2009 in North Scottsdale, the median price for a foreclosed property was $451,530 ($410,420 in April), while the traditional market was $435,000 ($450,000 in April). In South Scottsdale the splits were $249,105 ($180,980 in April) and $203,000 ($211,000 in April), respectively.

In Maryvale, traditional transactions were $42,000 ($43,000 in April) and foreclosures were $99,300 ($81,735 in April), while in Union Hills it was $205,450 ($207,500 in April) and $191,720 ($182,750 in April), respectively. 

For May 2009, Paradise Valley had a median square footage of 3,925 and a median price of $1,300,000. 

Of the 1,085 total recorded sales for May 2009 in the townhouse/condominium market 340 were foreclosed properties.  For a year ago, there were 900 total transactions with 220 being foreclosures.

In May 2009, the median price for foreclosed townhouse/condominium properties was $124,380 while the traditional market stood at $110,000. Last year, the splits were $135,600 and $161,000, respectively.

The median square footage for a single-family home recorded sold as foreclosed in May was 1,710 square feet (1,680 for a year ago), while it was 1,735 square feet (1,850 for a year ago) for a market transaction home. In the townhouse/condominium sector, the median square footage for a foreclosed unit was 1,075 square feet (1,035 for a year ago), while the traditional market unit was 1,155 square feet (1,170 for a year ago).

Realty Studies is associated with the Morrison School of Management and Agribusiness at Arizona State University’s Polytechnic campus. Realty Studies collects and analyzes data concerning real estate in the greater Phoenix metropolitan area. Realty Studies is a comprehensive and objective source of real estate information for private, public and governmental agencies. Its director, Dr. Jay Q. Butler, may be reached at (480) 727-1300 or e-mail him at Jay.Butler@asu.edu. To subscribe to RSS feed for Realty Studies news, visit http://www.poly.asu.edu/realty/rss.html.

Jay Butler, Jay.Butler@asu.edu
(480) 727-1300

Chris Lambrakis, lambrakis@asu.edu
(480) 727-1173
Public Affairs at ASU Polytechnic campus