December 10, 2008

Greater Phoenix resale market numbers pique investor, owner interest

Posted: December 10, 2008

In November 2008, there were a total of 6,465 home resales recorded. Foreclosure activity represented 48 percent (3,095 transactions), while 3,370 homes sold were traditional market transactions. Foreclosed transactions represent home owners losing their property to successful individual bidders or the lender of record.

In October 2008, the spilt was 3,745 foreclosed homes and 4,465 traditional transactions, while November 2007 was 1,115 and 2,580 recorded sales, respectively. Historically, the remaining months of the year tend to post slowing recorded activity. The 2008 year-to-date total is 42,425 traditional sales and 31,850 foreclosures. With an estimated 1,061,175 single-family homes in Maricopa County, annual foreclosure activity represents 3 percent of the inventory, while it was 0.7 percent for the 2007 year to date.

Monthly foreclosure activity differs throughout the Valley such as 49 percent in Surprise, 24 percent in Tempe and 41 percent in Chandler. In the much hoped for response to various mortgage modification programs offered by lenders and government agencies to assist troubled homeowners, recorded foreclosure activity could slow over the next few months, according to Jay Butler, director of Realty Studies in the Morrison School of Management and Agribusiness at Arizona State University Polytechnic.

“The fundamental issue is that most of the programs are based on the homeowners having the required income to support the modified mortgage,” said Butler. “However, the extremely weak economy is leading to mounting job losses that could severely impact the ability of a troubled household to have the needed income to qualify for one of the possible programs.”

While many will be helped, other households will confront not only job loss but the loss of their home. Thus, the desire and ability to maintain ownership or to purchase a home is being severely tested, further delaying any potential recovery.

“The local housing market will continue to be vexed well into the next year by eroding consumer confidence, brought on by a weak economy, possible job losses and tighter mortgage underwriting guidelines,” Butler said. “The declining prices have piqued interest for potential investors and owner-occupants, especially in the lower income ranges.”

For the traditional market, the median price was $162,000, while the foreclosed properties had a median price of $155,100. For a year ago, the median prices were $249,000 and $212,000, respectively. Investment interest is being driven by the anticipation that home prices will rise again in the next few years. The lower median price is being driven by several forces including the large number of vacant homes, especially in certain neighborhoods.

Since the Greater Phoenix area is so large, the median price can range significantly. In North Scottsdale, the median price for a foreclosed property was $371,300 ($495,000 in October), while the traditional market was $500,000 ($525,000 in October). In South Scottsdale the splits were respectively $240,910 ($209,550 in October) and $229,000 ($240,000 in October).

In Maryvale, traditional transactions were $57,000 ($71,500 in October) and foreclosures were $112,020 ($117,145 in October), while in Union Hills it was $242,000 ($249,950 in October) and $204,090 ($194,340 in October).

For November 2008, Paradise Valley had a median square footage of 4,580 square feet and a median price of $1,705,000.

Lower prices can greatly improve affordability, but also adversely impact many owners and potential sellers who are watching their limited equity erode as prices decline to and even below existing debt level. Rapidly declining value can be another issue in some of the mortgage modification programs, which require a limited decline in value from the purchase and financing of the home.

Within the 570 total recorded sales, the townhouse/condominium market had 265 foreclosed properties. A year ago the split was 660 for traditional sales and 75 for foreclosed sales. In November 2008, the median price for foreclosed properties was $115,835, while the traditional market stood at $136,900. Last year, the splits were $147,900 and $181,500, respectively.

The median square footage for a single-family home recorded sold as foreclosed was 1,625, and 1,735 square feet for a market transaction home. For a year ago, the foreclosed market was at 1,740 square feet, and the traditional market stood at 1,760 square feet. In the townhouse/condominium sector, the median square footage for a foreclosed unit was 1,120 square feet (1,035 square feet for a year ago), while the traditional market units was 1,165 square feet (1,120 square feet for a year ago).

November 2007 -- SINGLE-FAMILY RESALE HOMES
Selected Cities Total Median Price Traditional Sales Median Price Foreclosed Sales Median Price
Phoenix 985 $204,675 660 $218,000 325 $185,000
Scottsdale 250 541,500 205 565,000 45 463,050
Chandler 270 266,450 220 280,000 50 247,900
Gilbert 265 275,000 195 275,000 70 273,235
Mesa 395 222,900 295 230,000 100 190,185
Tempe 65 257,500 55 266,500 10 225,495
Avondale 75 216,000 45 212,470 30 219,215
El Mirage 60 170,000 30 169,500 30 177,715
Glendale 265 214,000 170 218,500 95 209,250
Goodyear 75 221,660 40 250,000 35 197,710
Peoria 180 235,445 120 245,000 60 222,975
Sun City 80 169,950 75 165,000 5 189,490
Sun City West 50 227,250 50 227,250    
Surprise 175 228,025 100 236,000 75 218,450

           
County 3,695 $236,000 2,580 $249,000 1,115 $212,000

 

October 2008 -- SINGLE-FAMILY RESALE HOMES
Selected Cities Total Median Price Traditional Sales Median Price Foreclosed Sales Median Price
Phoenix 2,605 $127,135 1,270 $121,950 1,335 $130,500
Scottsdale 375 426,785 265 441,500 110 413,520
Chandler 405 225,000 250 241,200 155 199,885
Gilbert 455 225,125 290 227,000 165 219,345
Mesa 805 165,515 440 174,000 365 157,375
Tempe 110 219,000 75 240,000 35 175,555
Avondale 320 140,000 160 142,250 160 136,250
El Mirage 185 108,000 85 101,925 100 112,460
Glendale 590 154,950 315 154,650 275 158,450
Goodyear 235 164,000 125 158,000 110 175,270
Peoria 360 199,900 195 214,350 165 184,885
Sun City 70 140,815 55 140,000 15 144,615
Sun City West 45 190,000 40 190,000 5 236,235
Surprise 495 162,000 280 157,250 215 169,570
           
County 8,210 $167,375 4,465 $175,000 3,745 $159,775

 

November 2008 -- SINGLE-FAMILY RESALE HOMES
Selected Cities Total Median Price Traditional Sales Median Price Foreclosed Sales Median Price
Phoenix
2,065 $120,000 950 $105,000 1,115 $127,500
Scottsdale
275 375,865 200 402,025 75 311,240
Chandler
340 221,000 200 225,000 140 210,960
Gilbert
335 215,000 195 215,000 140 213,850
Mesa
640 151,000 350 149,000 290 154,720
Tempe
85 208,780 65 220,000 20 192,925
Avondale
255 136,325 125 132,000 130 143,950
El Mirage
135 100,000 65 94,000 70 107,030
Glendale
470 140,000 225 138,000 245 148,665
Goodyear
185 165,000 85 156,000 100 171,950
Peoria
300 194,000 160 197,500 140 184,620
Sun City
50 149,750 40 149,500 10 170,000
Sun City West
35 210,000 35 210,000    
Surprise
380 162,240 195 160,000 185 165,735

           
County 6,465 $159,900 3,370 $162,000 3,095 $155,100

 

November 2007 -- TOWNHOUSE-CONDOMINUM RESALES
Selected Cities Total Median Price Traditional Sales Median Price Foreclosed Sales Median Price
Phoenix 260 $158,000 225 $164,450 35 $131,820
Scottsdale 200 250,000 185 255,000 15 190,800
Chandler 20 164,800 20 164,800    
Gilbert 5 194,500 5 194,500    
Mesa 60 141,750 50 147,250 10 112,950
Tempe 20 179,000 15 172,000 5 216,640
Avondale            
El Mirage            
Glendale 25 132,950 20 129,900 5 137,050
Goodyear            
Peoria 25 170,000 20 155,000 5 231,865
Sun City 45 123,750 45 123,750    
Sun City West 15 154,500 15 154,500    
Surprise            

           
County 735 $178,830 660 $181,500 75 $147,900

 

October 2008 -- TOWNHOUSE-CONDOMINUM RESALES
Selected Cities Total Median Price Traditional Sales Median Price Foreclosed Sales Median Price
Phoenix 325 $115,000 155 $120,450 170 $106,250
Scottsdale 150 205,150 100 219,900 50 178,910
Chandler 40 126,925 20 134,900 20 125,815
Gilbert 15 130,920 10 136,000 5 126,650
Mesa 125 108,000 75 115,000 50 104,120
Tempe 50 146,750 35 143,500 15 147,950
Avondale            
El Mirage            
Glendale 35 93,100 15 83,000 20 101,120
Goodyear            
Peoria 15 155,450 15 157,900    
Sun City 30 119,000 25 121,000 5 100,335
Sun City West 10 141,000 10 141,000    
Surprise            
           
County 850 $127,500 495 $136,750 355 $119,375

 

November 2008 -- TOWNHOUSE-CONDOMINUM RESALES
Selected Cities Total Median Price Traditional Sales Median Price Foreclosed Sales Median Price
Phoenix
190 $112,625 90 $110,000 100 $115,000
Scottsdale
115 186,950 75 200,450 40 155,770
Chandler
30 123,000 15 123,450 15 111,930
Gilbert
10 137,075 5 144,750 5 137,075
Mesa
75 108,345 35 117,500 40 106,250
Tempe
20 164,805 10 170,000 10 161,040
Avondale
           
El Mirage
           
Glendale
35 77,000 10 77,000 25 79,135
Goodyear
           
Peoria
20 138,000 15 145,175 5 112,600
Sun City
25 107,000 25 107,000    
Sun City West
5 106,900 5 106,900    
Surprise
           

           
County 570 $125,785 305 $136,900 265 $115,835

 


Realty Studies is associated with the Morrison School of Management and Agribusiness at Arizona State University’s Polytechnic campus. Realty Studies collects and analyzes data concerning real estate in the greater Phoenix metropolitan area. Realty Studies is a comprehensive and objective source of real estate information for private, public and governmental agencies.  Its director, Dr. Jay Q. Butler, may be reached at (480) 727-1300 or e-mail him at Jay.Butler@asu.edu. To subscribe to RSS feed for Realty Studies news, visit http://www.poly.asu.edu/realty/rss.html.

Jay Butler, Jay.Butler@asu.edu
(480) 727-1300

Chris Lambrakis, lambrakis@asu.edu
(480) 727-1173
Public Affairs at ASU Polytechnic campus