November 14, 2008

Greater Phoenix resale numbers show decline in prices

Posted: November 14, 2008

In October 2008, a total of 8,210 resale homes recorded as sold. Foreclosure activity represented 47 percent (3,745 transactions) and 4,465 traditional market transactions. Foreclosed transactions represent home owners losing their property to successful individual bidders or the lender of record. In September 2008, the spilt was 3,655 foreclosed homes and 4,625 traditional transactions, while recorded sales in October 2007 was 1,145 and 2,825, respectively. Historically, the remaining months of the year tend to post slowing recorded activity. The 2008 year-to-date total is 39,055 traditional sales and 28,755 foreclosures.

Foreclosure activity differs throughout the Valley such as 43 percent in Surprise, 32 percent in Tempe and 50 percent in Avondale. Over the next few months, recorded foreclosure activity could decline because of the response to various mortgage modification programs offered by lenders and government agencies to assist troubled homeowners, according to Jay Butler, director of Realty Studies in the Morrison School of Management and Agribusiness at Arizona State University Polytechnic.

“The fundamental issue is that most of the programs are based on the homeowners having decent income to support the modified mortgage,” he said. “However, the extremely weak economy is leading to mounting job losses that could severely impact the ability of a troubled household to have the needed income to qualify for one of the possible programs.

“While many will be helped, other households will confront not only job loss but the loss of their home. Thus, the desire and ability to maintain ownership or to purchase a home is being severely tested, which will further delay any potential recovery,” Butler said.

“The local housing market will continue to be vexed well into the next year by eroding consumer confidence, brought on by a weak economy, possible job losses and tighter mortgage underwriting guidelines.”

The declining prices have piqued interest for potential investors and owner-occupants, especially in the lower income ranges. For the traditional market, the median price was $175,000, while the foreclosed properties had a median price of $159,775. For a year ago, the median prices were $250,000 and $218,225, respectively. Investment interest is being driven by the anticipation that home prices will rise again in the next few years. The lower median price is being driven by several forces including the large number of vacant homes, especially in certain neighborhoods.

Since the greater Phoenix area is so large, the median price can range significantly. In North Scottsdale, the median price for a foreclosed property was $495,000, while the traditional market was $525,000. In South Scottsdale the splits were $209,550 and $240,000, respectively.

In Maryvale, traditional transactions were $71,500 and foreclosures were $117,145, while in Union Hills it was $249,950 and $194,340. While lower prices can greatly improve affordability, they can adversely impact many owners and potential sellers whom are watching their limited equity erode, as prices decline to and even below existing debt level. Rapidly declining value can be another issue in some of the mortgage modification programs which require a limited decline in value from the purchase and financing of the home.

Within the 850 total recorded sales, the townhouse/condominium market had 355 foreclosed properties. A year ago the split was 695 for traditional sales and 80 for foreclosed sales. In October 2008, the median price for foreclosed properties was $119,375, while the traditional market stood at $136,750. Last year, the respective splits were $150,720 and $173,500.

The median square footage for a single-family home recorded sold as foreclosed was 1,650 and 1,765 square feet for a market transaction home. For October 2008, Paradise Valley had a median square footage of 3,450 square feet and a median price of $1,324,000. For a year ago, the foreclosed market was at 1,785 square feet and the traditional market stood at 1,750 square feet. In the townhouse/condominium sector, the median square footage for a foreclosed unit was 1,075 square feet (1,175 square feet for year ago), while the traditional market units was 1,185 square feet (1,035 square feet for a year ago).

October 2007 -- SINGLE-FAMILY RESALE HOMES
Selected Cities Total Median Price Traditional Sales Median Price Foreclosed Sales Median Price
Phoenix 1,075 $200,000 765 $210,000 310 $186,275
Scottsdale 290 544,950 255 551,000 35 465,590
Chandler 260 279,500 200 275,000 60 288,225
Gilbert 265 275,000 195 275,000 70 275,000
Mesa 410 229,250 305 236,500 105 209,265
Tempe 90 258,630 75 262,500 15 229,500
Avondale 105 213,095 50 217,000 55 207,000
El Mirage 55 178,500 30 177,250 25 181,790
Glendale 300 224,200 195 230,000 105 209,925
Goodyear 90 245,900 50 250,000 40 226,555
Peoria 180 254,030 125 253,000 55 255,000
Sun City 50 162,500 50 162,500
Sun City West 50 239,000 50 239,000
Surprise 200 228,830 120 229,000 80 227,710

County 3,970 $239,900 2,825 $250,000 1,145 $218,225

 

September 2008 -- SINGLE-FAMILY RESALE HOMES
Selected Cities Total Median Price Traditional Sales Median Price Foreclosed Sales Median Price
Phoenix 2,570 136,000 1,215 145,000 1,355 128,950
Scottsdale 345 396,250 255 400,000 90 350,000
Chandler 435 220,000 310 228,465 125 204,600
Gilbert 485 229,965 315 230,000 170 229,500
Mesa 820 163,000 485 170,000 335 149,350
Tempe 110 214,655 80 220,000 30 197,550
Avondale 385 143,470 185 141,250 200 145,250
El Mirage 175 114,750 85 115,000 90 113,875
Glendale 620 158,000 335 167,900 285 149,110
Goodyear 225 155,000 125 161,500 100 152,500
Peoria 375 202,575 210 211,000 165 192,295
Sun City 90 156,750 65 150,000 25 185,500
Sun City West 35 198,480 30 200,000 5 184,065
Surprise 460 165,900 255 166,330 205 165,000

County 8,280 169,000 4,625 180,000 3,655 153,000

 

October 2008 -- SINGLE-FAMILY RESALE HOMES
Selected Cities Total Median Price Traditional Sales Median Price Foreclosed Sales Median Price
Phoenix
2,605 $127,135 1,270 $121,950 1,335 $130,500
Scottsdale
375 426,785 265 441,500 110 413,520
Chandler
405 225,000 250 241,200 155 199,885
Gilbert
455 225,125 290 227,000 165 219,345
Mesa
805 165,515 440 174,000 365 157,375
Tempe
110 219,000 75 240,000 35 175,555
Avondale
320 140,000 160 142,250 160 136,250
El Mirage
185 108,000 85 101,925 100 112,460
Glendale
590 154,950 315 154,650 275 158,450
Goodyear
235 164,000 125 158,000 110 175,270
Peoria
360 199,900 195 214,350 165 184,885
Sun City
70 140,815 55 140,000 15 144,615
Sun City West
45 190,000 40 190,000 5 236,235
Surprise
495 162,000 280 157,250 215 169,570

County 8,210 $167,375 4,465 $175,000 3,745 $159,775

 

October 2007 -- TOWNHOUSE-CONDOMINUM RESALES
Selected Cities Total Median Price Traditional Sales Median Price Foreclosed Sales Median Price
Phoenix 295 $154,500 255 $160,000 40 $130,585
Scottsdale 195 221,600 180 223,600 15 190,255
Chandler 20 165,000 20 165,000
Gilbert 10 175,000 10 175,000
Mesa 70 139,700 60 145,000 10 109,295
Tempe 25 180,750 20 180,750 5 221,455
Avondale
El Mirage
Glendale 45 140,000 40 140,000 5 141,340
Goodyear
Peoria 15 189,950 15 200,000
Sun City 40 116,000 40 116,000
Sun City West 10 152,500 10 152,500
Surprise

County 775 $172,000 695 $173,500 80 $150,720

 

September 2008 -- TOWNHOUSE-CONDOMINUM RESALES
Selected Cities Total Median Price Traditional Sales Median Price Foreclosed Sales Median Price
Phoenix 305 134,130 175 149,000 130 111,490
Scottsdale 145 210,000 90 216,000 55 203,320
Chandler 25 125,500 15 126,000 10 110,570
Gilbert 15 147,200 10 159,850 5 124,775
Mesa 110 105,835 70 125,000 40 99,875
Tempe 40 145,000 25 157,000 15 133,200
Avondale
El Mirage
Glendale 35 94,040 15 91,250 20 94,040
Goodyear
Peoria 20 137,640 15 130,000 5 141,515
Sun City 35 97,680 30 100,000 5 95,360
Sun City West 10 132,500 10 140,000
Surprise

County 800 139,200 500 145,000 300 117,455

 

October 2008 -- TOWNHOUSE-CONDOMINUM RESALES
Selected Cities Total Median Price Traditional Sales Median Price Foreclosed Sales Median Price
Phoenix
325 $115,000 155 $120,450 170 $106,250
Scottsdale
150 205,150 100 219,900 50 178,910
Chandler
40 126,925 20 134,900 20 125,815
Gilbert
15 130,920 10 136,000 5 126,650
Mesa
125 108,000 75 115,000 50 104,120
Tempe
50 146,750 35 143,500 15 147,950
Avondale
El Mirage
Glendale
35 93,100 15 83,000 20 101,120
Goodyear
Peoria
15 155,450 15 157,900
Sun City
30 119,000 25 121,000 5 100,335
Sun City West
10 141,000 10 141,000
Surprise

County 850 $127,500 495 $136,750 355 $119,375

 


Realty Studies is associated with the Morrison School of Management and Agribusiness at Arizona State University’s Polytechnic campus. Realty Studies collects and analyzes data concerning real estate in the greater Phoenix metropolitan area. Realty Studies is a comprehensive and objective source of real estate information for private, public and governmental agencies. Its director, Dr. Jay Q. Butler, may be reached at (480) 727-1300 or e-mail him at Jay.Butler@asu.edu. To subscribe to RSS feed for Realty Studies news, visit http://www.poly.asu.edu/realty/rss.html.

Jay Butler, Jay.Butler@asu.edu
(480) 727-1300

Chris Lambrakis, lambrakis@asu.edu
(480) 727-1173
Public Affairs at ASU Polytechnic campus